
Bitcoin failed to break and hold above 99,750, taking a sharp dive amid hawkish Federal Reserve (FED) expectations. The ongoing pressure on Bitcoin due to the strong dollar index persists, but the bullish cycle likely remains intact. If cycle dynamics hold, Bitcoin is expected to reach at least 130,000 in the first half of 2025 before experiencing a 70%-80% correction over the subsequent years, leading into the next bullish cycle.
For now, the spotlight is on U.S. data, the FED, the dollar index, and Trump. With strong U.S. data, the FED is expected to implement just one rate cut in 2025—far fewer than initially priced in. This adjustment in expectations has been swift, with the dollar index surging 9% since the end of September. Part of this move is attributed to the incoming tariffs announced by Trump. However, despite Trump’s recent impact on the dollar index, crypto markets hold high hopes for his presidency. Some changes are anticipated as early as the first day of his administration.
(BTCUSD Daily Chart)

The technical outlook for Bitcoin is quite positive. The recent flag formation suggests a breakout if Bitcoin surpasses 103k. In that scenario, the next target on the daily chart points to over 130k, aligning with cycle analysis. However, crypto traders are asking an important question: when will the altcoin season begin?
While there isn’t enough data to make a definitive prediction, altcoins typically follow Bitcoin’s lead in a more conservative manner until Bitcoin reaches the cycle top. At that point, some funds often flow from Bitcoin to altcoins. Due to the lower liquidity in the altcoin market, these shifts can result in significant price surges for altcoins.
However, in this cycle, the high expectations of 10x–20x moves may disappoint altcoin traders. This is because a substantial portion of the inflows into Bitcoin has come from more institutional sources, which are less likely to shift into altcoins, except for possibly some major ones. Still, there is a good chance that altcoins will have their season in the coming months, albeit in a more conservative manner.