
Bitcoin is once again approaching the $100,000 milestone, boosted by the Santa Rally in stock markets. Despite attempts to decouple from the stock market, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 still share a nearly 80% correlation. This could pose a challenge for crypto bulls in the coming months if the correlation persists.
So far, BTCUSD’s monthly candle remains green, reminiscent of the 2020-2021 rally’s January candle, though it’s a close call. If this bull market follows the pattern of previous halving cycles, Bitcoin is expected to rise further over the next three months, potentially peaking in the $130,000–$150,000 range.
(BTCUSD Hourly Chart)

In the short term, Bitcoin appears to be ranging between $92,250 and $99,750. As long as this range persists, there seems to be little reason to favor any specific direction, in our view. However, there is a possibility that Bitcoin could finish the year strong. During the 2020-2021 bull cycle, from October 26 to January 1, Bitcoin surged 36%, ending the year on a high note and starting the new year even stronger. If the first seven days of January are included, the return jumps to 65% in just two weeks, followed by a sharp correction. With market volume currently low, a similar, albeit smaller, move could occur if the crypto market decouples further from the stock market, possibly supported by a Santa Rally.
For the bullish scenario, Bitcoin must break the $99,750 resistance and sustain it. If this breakout occurs, the next target would be $107,250, representing nearly a 10% gain from the time this article is written. However, the base case remains that the $92,250–$99,750 range will continue. A retreat toward $92,250 or a breakout above $99,750 could both present buying opportunities for crypto bulls, provided they employ appropriate stop-loss levels and favorable risk-reward ratios.