4 days left to the election, 4 of the big five’s earnings reports coming on Thursday and Nasdaq is feeling the pressure. Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet will reveal their earnings report after close. They have combined $5 trillion market cap and can have a big impact on Nasdaq as well as other major indexes.
11600 is a major resistance level and as long as it holds, downside pressure will likely to continue. Index is getting support around 11200 and because of high earning expectations, we can see a move through 11525, a short term downside channel’s upper band. But because of failed stimulus, election risks and rising covid-19 cases, there is a high chance, 4th quarter earnings might not that good.
If 11200 support fail to hold, downside move can accelerate and this opens up 10950 – 10430 targets.
Percentage of stocks below their 4 week lows in Nasdaq Composite is at %36 level. Excluding Covid-19 February – March fall, there were upside corrections after 4 week lows, fell around %35. But this bullish moves can come after more than few tries %35 support. For example in September it took more than 2 weeks of slightly bearish consolidation to saw an uptrend move. And of course there is a chance of February – March kind of fall which completely ignored this indicator.
As for long term outlook, there is a bullish flag starting from March lows. The consolidation between 10430-12160 likely to continue for some time. But if or when upper band break above, we can see a new long term uptrend forming. Bullish flag chart pattern will be valid as long as lower band holds.
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